![]() ![]() To do this, we first randomly choose a draft slot in the 9-12 (the Late) range. A bit more complicated, suppose we want to test the ‘Mid-Round QB + Very Late QB’ strategy when we are drafting from the ‘Late Pick’ portion of the round. For example, if we test the ‘Early QB-Early QB’ strategy for an Early pick, then we are taking a quarterback in rounds 1 and 2 when our pick is between 1st and 4th in the first round. In this way, we simulate every possible combination of these groups to see which quarterback-based superflex draft strategy works best for each pick range. ‘Middle Pick’ and ‘Late Pick’ are similarly defined to be drafting in the 5-8 and 9-12 ranges, respectively. If you have an early pick, your first round selection happens between 1st and 4th overall. Furthermore, we also group the pick numbers into pick ranges as an ‘Early Pick’, ‘Middle Pick’, and ‘Late Pick’. These categories correspond, respectively, to drafting a quarterback in rounds 1-2, 3-5, 6-8, and 9-10, respectively. Instead of testing every possible combination of which two rounds we could draft a quarterback, we group them up into ‘Early QB’, ‘Mid-round QB’, ‘Late QB’, and ‘Very late QB’. Instead, we group things together to get a better idea of what is going on. The differences in those 540 possible combinations will be too small to easily determine trends. Similarly, a particular strategy at the first overall pick is likely to be nearly identical to using that same strategy at the second overall pick. Moreover, the difference between taking a quarterback in rounds 1 and 7 is probably imperceptibly different from taking a quarterback in rounds 1 and 8. Multiplying by the 12 possible options for which first round pick you have would result in 540 possible settings to simulate Presenting 540 data points to you, the reader, will suffer from the dreaded “conveying no information by presenting too much information” problem. However, if we set the upper bound for when you take your second quarterback to be the 10th round, then there are 45 possible combinations of pairs of rounds (between 1 and 10) in which we could possibly take our two quarterbacks. We want to test the best two rounds in which to draft a quarterback through modeling and simulation of mock drafts. We also argue that, while this is optimal in an average case sense, the best strategy is to use these suggestions as a guide while ultimately letting the draft board and what other players are doing dictate your strategy. Moreover, we suggest to take one tight end in the first two rounds if the board falls right and running backs with the other 2 of your first five picks. We find that the optimal superflex draft strategy begins with drafting your two quarterbacks in rounds 3-5. Something I’ve learned in communicating technical material over the years is that sometimes it is best to present your findings first and then explain your methods afterwards. To see the specifics for each pick, please follow this link to skip ahead to the simulations and data for each pick and this link to skip ahead to the section in which we determine the best superflex draft strategy for each pick based on tens of thousands of mock draft simulations. ![]() After this, we perform some 100,000 simulations of mock drafts in order to tell you how to structure your first five picks and determine which position to target in each round. We’ll go through each pick, 1st through 12th overall, and determine the optimal time to take quarterbacks during your fantasy draft. In this article, we study superflex draft strategy and attempt to answer the “When should I draft quarterbacks” question in the 2021 fantasy football season. But in superflex, the extra value added to quarterbacks changes which draft strategies are optimal. Check out our 2022 standard, half PPR, full PPR, and superflex strategy here!īy far the most important superflex draft strategy revolves around answering the question: “When should I draft quarterbacks?” Most fantasy football managers are comfortable with the generic fantasy draft strategy of running backs and receivers early, grab a QB and TE in the mid rounds, and fill in the gaps later. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |